讲座题目：Estimation of Incubation Period and Generation Time Based on Observed Length-biased Epidemic Cohort with Censoring for COVID-19 Outbreak in China

主讲人：周晓华教授  北京大学

讲座时间：2020年8月25日（周二）上午10：00—12：00

参与方式：腾讯会议会议 ID：242 900 658；

会议直播网址: https://meeting.tencent.com/l/NuevrV3FCEy0

主讲人简介：

周晓华教授是北京⼤学讲席教授，国家海外高层次人才入选者。北京⼤学⽣物统计系主任，北京⼤学统计科学中⼼副主任， 北京⼤学北京国际数学研究中⼼⽣物统计及⽣物信息实验室主任，北京⼤数据研究院中医⼤数据中⼼主任。国际⽣物统计学会中国分会 (IBS-China) 理事长，中国现场统计研究会⽣物医学统计学会会长，美国科学促进会(AAAS)会⼠(Fellow)， 美国统计学会(ASA)会⼠(Fellow)，数理统计学会(IMS)会⼠ (Fellow）, 国际统计研究院会⼠(Member)。美国联邦政府⾷品和药物管理局（FDA）医疗器械和放射健康顾  问委员会委员。荣获美国联邦政府授予的研究⽣涯科学家奖、中国国家⾃然科学基⾦委海外杰青, 中国教育部⾼层次⽂教专家、中国教育部海外名师等荣誉称号，获美国统计学会贝叶斯分析科学分会及国际贝叶斯统计科学学会Mitchell 奖，中国产学研合作创新奖, SCIENCE CHINA-Mathematics 评选的年度优秀论⽂奖。研究⽅向主要集中于医学诊断学的统计⽅法，随机临床试验中的设计及统计⽅法，因果推断分析⽅法, 医疗⼤数据，缺失数据，新兴传染病的数学和统计建模, 脑科学，卫⽣经济，卫⽣服务， 中医药研究等领域发展新的统计⽅法，做出了许多重要贡献，在国际顶尖的统计和⽣物统计期刊 J. R. Statist. Soc. B, JASA、Biometrika、Annals of Statistics, Biometrics, Statistics in Medicine 等发表 SCI 学术论⽂ 260 余篇, 其中 130 余篇是第⼀或通信作者。先后任⽣物统计学顶尖期刊， Biometrics, Statistics in Medicine, Journal of American Statistical Association - Theory and Method 副编辑，也是国际⽣物统计学会中国分会会刊，Biostatistics & Epidemiology， 主编。

讲座摘要：

The incubation period and generation time are key characteristics in the analysis of infectious diseases. The commonly used contact-tracing based estimation of incubation distribution is highly influenced by the individuals’ judgment on the possible date of exposure, and might lead to significant errors. On the other hand, interval censoring based methods are able to utilize a much larger set of traveling data but may encounter biased sampling problems. The distribution of generation time is usually approximated by observed serial intervals. However, it may result in a biased estimation of generation time, especially when the disease is infectious during incubation. In this paper, the theory from renewal process is partially adopted by considering the incubation period as the inter-arrival time, and the duration between departure from Wuhan and onset of symptoms as the mixture of forward time and inter-arrival time with censored intervals. In addition, a consistent estimator for the distribution of generation time based on incubation period and serial interval is proposed for incubation-infectious diseases. A real case application to the current outbreak of COVID-19 is implemented. The basic reproduction number in the early phase of COVID-19 outbreak based on the proposed generation time estimation is estimated to be 2.96 (95% CI: 2.15, 3.86).   This is a joint work with Drs.  Deng, You, Liu, and Qin.